Instrumental analysis of the impact of economic factors on the level of a country’s economic innovativeness

Abstract

The rapid development of innovative activity in Ukraine and the instability of the economic and political environment determine the relevance of studying the problems of innovative development in close connection with global and local factors of economic growth. The purpose of the research is to study the budgetary policy factors that have a dominant influence on the level of national innovative development, and their impact on the level of economic growth in order to form directions for innovation policy development based on instrumental analysis methods. The paper uses methods of econometric modeling and adaptive methods of forecasting. The constructed conceptual model includes three aggregated stages of research. The study addressed the problem of assessing the level of a country’s economic innovativeness and determining the factors affecting it; it was found that this level grows with an increase in the share of private investment, a decrease in the rate of GDP growth, an increase in the share of taxes in the budget structure, a decrease in the money supply, an increase in education and public security expenditures. The impact of the state budgetary policy was analyzed and the value of the indicator of economic growth and the level of the country’s economic innovativeness was forecasted. The practical significance of the results is that a gradual reduction in the level of the country’s economic innovativeness is possible in periods of long-term economic growth. To avoid such negative consequences, European governments should pay more attention to internal problems and external trends of innovation activity.