Monetary Traps of the New Macroeconomic Consensus: Problems of Stabilization Policy after COVID-19

Abstract

The relevance of the study lies in the consideration of transmission channels through which the influence of monetary policy carried out by the governments and central banks of the United States, Japan and Germany was realized. The purpose of the article is to consider the phenomenon of the monetary trap as a special case of an unforeseen macroeconomic reaction to the stabilization anti-crisis policy pursued by the state, which is designed to stimulate economic activity and contribute to the growth of aggregate output. The article identified the potential of economic theory (with an emphasis on the New Macroeconomic Consensus) to illuminate the current practice of state stabilization policy, taking into account new historical challenges, as well as modeling the impact of monetary instruments of stabilization policy on the potential for economic recovery of the United States, Japan and Germany. To achieve the goal of the study, scientific and special research methods were used, namely: methods of analysis, abstraction and synthesis, induction and deduction, as well as a system-structural method; hypothetical-deductive method; idealization method; methods of economic and mathematical modeling. An analysis of the consequences of the state policy to counteract the downturn in the economic situation as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic made it possible to periodize it and establish that the stabilization measures at the first stage were mainly of a fiscal nature, while at the second stage they were focused on monetary containment of the volatility of commodity prices. A regression express analysis of the relationship between monetary incentives and changes in GDP and inflation in the United States, Japan, and Germany made it possible to establish that the influence of monetary impulses on price stability manifests itself over a longer period of time and depends on the influence of many factors, including price fluctuations, changes in nominal wages, exchange rate dynamics and expectations of economic agents.