DSpace Фонд:https://repository.hneu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/1842026-08-05T12:16:11Z2026-08-05T12:16:11ZPlateau and Structural Regime Shift: Hybrid Forecasting of the EU Decarbonisation Gap Toward 2030 TargetsLiashenko O.Pavlov K.Pavlova O.Demianiuk O.Chmura R.Sowa B.Vlasenko T.https://repository.hneu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/415922026-08-04T11:52:02Z2026-01-01T00:00:00ZНазва: Plateau and Structural Regime Shift: Hybrid Forecasting of the EU Decarbonisation Gap Toward 2030 Targets
Автори: Liashenko O.; Pavlov K.; Pavlova O.; Demianiuk O.; Chmura R.; Sowa B.; Vlasenko T.
Короткий огляд (реферат): This study investigates the structural evolution and projected trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the EU27 from 1990 to 2030, with a particular focus on their implications for the effectiveness of European climate policy. Empirical findings, based on Markov-switching models and segmented regression analysis, indicate a statistically significant regime change around 2014, marking a transi tion to a new emissions pattern characterised by a deceleration in reduction rates. The results underscore critical weaknesses in the EU’s climate policy architecture and reveal a clear need for transformative recalibration. Without accelerated action and strengthened governance mechanisms, the post-2014 regime risks entrenching a plateau in emissions reductions, jeopardising long-term climate objectives.2026-01-01T00:00:00ZFrom Stochastic Shocks to Structural Burden: Quantifying Systemic Climate-Related Economic Risks in the European UnionPavlov K.Liashenko O.Pavlova O.Wołowiec T.Bochenek P.Ćwik K.Vlasenko T.https://repository.hneu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/415912026-08-04T11:41:17Z2026-01-01T00:00:00ZНазва: From Stochastic Shocks to Structural Burden: Quantifying Systemic Climate-Related Economic Risks in the European Union
Автори: Pavlov K.; Liashenko O.; Pavlova O.; Wołowiec T.; Bochenek P.; Ćwik K.; Vlasenko T.
Короткий огляд (реферат): Despite the well-documented acceleration of climate-related economic losses in Europe, existing research has largely treated these damages as isolated stochastic events rather than as structurally embedded fiscal risks. This gap leaves EU fiscal governance frameworks inadequately prepared for the persistent, spatially concentrated, and temporally depen dent nature of such losses. This study addresses this gap by investigating the systemic transformation of climate-related economic risks within the European Union, arguing that climate losses have evolved from unpredictable stochastic shocks into a persistent, struc tural burden on the European economy. Consequently, the paper advocates for a paradigm shift in EU climate policy-moving toward anticipatory fiscal instruments, harmonised resilience financing, and monitoring systems designed to mitigate systemic volatility and cross-country economic asymmetry rather than merely responding to isolated disaster events.2026-01-01T00:00:00ZClassifying National Pathways of Sustainable Development Through Bayesian Probabilistic ModellingLiashenko O.Pavlov K.Pavlova O.Chmura R.Czechowska-Kosacka A.Vlasenko T.Sabat A.https://repository.hneu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/415902026-08-04T11:32:54Z2026-01-01T00:00:00ZНазва: Classifying National Pathways of Sustainable Development Through Bayesian Probabilistic Modelling
Автори: Liashenko O.; Pavlov K.; Pavlova O.; Chmura R.; Czechowska-Kosacka A.; Vlasenko T.; Sabat A.
Короткий огляд (реферат): As global efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) enter a critical phase, there is a growing need for analytical tools that reflect the complexity and het erogeneity of development pathways. This study introduces a probabilistic classification framework designed to uncover latent typologies of national performance across the sev enteen Sustainable Development Goals. Unlike traditional ranking systems or composite indices, the proposed method uses raw, standardised goal-level indicators and accounts for both structural variation and classification uncertainty. The findings provide a prac tical basis for tailoring national strategies to structural conditions and the multidimensional nature of sustainable development.2026-01-01T00:00:00ZBeyond One-Size-Fits-All: A Flow-Based Typology of Circular Industrial Symbiosis Ecosystems and Equifinal Pathways to Environmental PerformancePavlova O.Liashenko O.Pavlov K.Nagara M.Bashynska I.Harapko D.Vlasenko T.Dukhnevych A.https://repository.hneu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/415892026-08-04T11:14:56Z2026-01-01T00:00:00ZНазва: Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: A Flow-Based Typology of Circular Industrial Symbiosis Ecosystems and Equifinal Pathways to Environmental Performance
Автори: Pavlova O.; Liashenko O.; Pavlov K.; Nagara M.; Bashynska I.; Harapko D.; Vlasenko T.; Dukhnevych A.
Короткий огляд (реферат): Industrial symbiosis (IS) research has documented many successful ecosystems but still lacks an empirically grounded typology linking resource flow configurations to environ mental outcomes across diverse contexts. This study develops such a typology and tests whether distinct configurations achieve comparable environmental performance through different pathways - the configurational principle of equifinality. Economic performance does not differ significantly across configurations, and the multinomial model of contextual predictors is jointly insignificant. This study contributes an empirically grounded framework for circular economy practice that moves beyond one-size-fits-all prescriptions and offers a configurational lens for the design of sus tainable industrial ecosystems.2026-01-01T00:00:00Z