Analysis of fluctuations in the national economy: Models and development scenarios

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to analyse the prospects for the development of the Ukrainian economy, taking into account the cyclicality and fluctuations of economic processes, which are provoked by both evolutionary trends and fluctuations in force majeure circumstances. The construction of a cluster analysis model made it possible to identify priority types of economic activity and prove the significance of their impact on the country’s economic development. The analysis of trends in the development of the economy and its priority types of economic activity was studied for two periods of development: normal and force majeure. The study showed that economic processes in the country have non-linear development trajectories. Therefore, to forecast the development of the country’s economy the spectral analysis method and the adaptive forecasting method were used. The analysis of the non-linearity of the development of priority types of economic activity showed their impact on the wave nature of the development of the national economy. “Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing”, “Manufacturing” and “Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles” were identified as the most prevalent economic activity types by the cluster analysis. Analysis of the development of cyclical components using spectral analysis showed the formation of cointegration effects when cyclical components at the resonance of crisis points intensify the general economic crisis. Local bifurcation points as crisis points of the national economy were identified and it was proven that they are provoked by economic fluctuations of its priority types of economic activity. As a result, three main scenarios for managing the national economy were developed – a support scenario, a crisis scenario, and a growth scenario; for each scenario, general recommendations for regulating the national economy were developed.