The impact of non-tariff barriers of the eu on the export of key agrarian goods of Ukraine

Abstract

The article analyzes the impact of the European Union’s non-tariff barriers—particularly sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBT)—on the volume and structure of Ukraine’s agricultural exports over the period 2015–2025. The aim of the study is to quantitatively assess the trade costs generated by EU regulatory requirements and to identify patterns in their influence on the commodity composition of exports, taking into account institutional developments such as the implementation of the DCFTA Agreement and temporary trade liberalization measures. The methodological framework of the research is based on gravity modeling using the PPML estimator, complemented by the calculation of ad valorem equivalents that capture the magnitude of non-tariff pressure. Unlike previous studies, this work provides the first detailed quantitative assessment of the impact of SPS notifications on specific groups of Ukrainian agricultural products over a ten-year period, enabling the identification of hidden trade costs generated by regulatory requirements. The analysis reveals differentiated sensitivity across product groups: exports of sugar and sunflower oil are the most vulnerable to increasing SPS burdens, whereas the impact of TBT measures exhibits greater heterogeneity and is partially mitigated by the digitalization of procedures and the harmonization of technical standards. The results offer new insights into the role of non-tariff barriers in shaping Ukraine’s agricultural trade flows and form an analytical basis for enhancing the effectiveness of export support policies, aligning production processes with European standards, and developing digital certification platforms. The proposed approach also makes it possible to forecast future trade costs and optimize strategies for entering the EU market, which is of practical importance for building a resilient and competitive Ukrainian agricultural export sector under conditions of intensifying regulatory pressure.