Plateau and Structural Regime Shift: Hybrid Forecasting of the EU Decarbonisation Gap Toward 2030 Targets

Abstract

This study investigates the structural evolution and projected trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the EU27 from 1990 to 2030, with a particular focus on their implications for the effectiveness of European climate policy. Empirical findings, based on Markov-switching models and segmented regression analysis, indicate a statistically significant regime change around 2014, marking a transi tion to a new emissions pattern characterised by a deceleration in reduction rates. The results underscore critical weaknesses in the EU’s climate policy architecture and reveal a clear need for transformative recalibration. Without accelerated action and strengthened governance mechanisms, the post-2014 regime risks entrenching a plateau in emissions reductions, jeopardising long-term climate objectives.