Forecasting the Development of Passenger Air Transportation: Regional Aspect

Abstract

This article examines the influence of external factors on air passenger transportation, a key component of tourism. Factors such as military conflicts, epidemics and large-scale international events can both stimulate growth in passenger traffic and cause sharp declines. Methodologically, the study is based on the analysis of statistical data for 2012–2024 on the volume of passenger air transportation, with further spatial aggregation of data and the construction of trend models for 2022–2025 for airports in countries bordering Ukraine. The results indicate a transformation of air services associated with the displacement of logistical, evacuation, and migration routes. The forecast models suggest that high activity will persist at these regional airports in the short to medium term, even if the security situation partially stabilises. The study highlights both negative and positive changes in the spatial restructuring of aviation infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe, with an emphasis on the role of peripheral airports under new conditions of population mobility.