The cognitive modeling of the development of the Ukrainian banking system

Abstract

The aim of the study is the analysis of the development of the banking system of Ukraine in the current economic and political conditions and identifying the opportunities of using the cognitive technologies for predicting its development. Methodical research tools include the cognitive modeling, which allows establishing a qualitative relationship between quantitative indicators. Testing of methodological tools was conducted on the example of the Ukrainian banks. It was analyzed the current financial position of the banking system of Ukraine with the help of the indicators of profitability, equity, liquidity, business activity. As a result the substantial worsening of indicators of basic performance of Ukrainian banks was discovered. It was investigated the possibilities of using cognitive models in bank's management for prediction the development of the banking system of Ukraine. It was proposed to use integrated assessment of financial stability of the Ukrainian banking system as a factor that reflects the level of its development. By using cognitive modeling intercommunication of indexes that characterize financial sustainability of Ukrainian banking system was investigated. It was founded that among the indicators of financial sustainability of Ukrainian banking system the most important is an index of correlation of clean open position in foreign currency to the capital. It was proposed to use the results of cognitive analysis in constructing scenarios of development of the banking system of Ukraine.