Applying the lasso method to predict the impact of tariff reductions on customs revenues in Vietnam

Abstract

The study assesses the impact of tariff reductions on fluctuations in customs revenues in Vietnam. The collection of research data was based on the official sources, namely the Government’s Web Portal and the World Bank’s website, and took place between 2002 and 2017. This paper uses the LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) linear regression model to estimate and predict the relationship of data series, thereby drawing a regression equation to consider the impact of various factors on customs revenues. The results have proven that tariff reductions have no negative impact on customs revenues. When tariffs are reduced, import turnover increases, the level of compliance with tax laws by import-export enterprises increases, and smuggling and trade fraud decrease. Based on these conclusions, the paper proposes several policies aimed at ensuring future customs revenues in Vietnam. As follows from the findings provided below, in order to ensure customs revenues, the Vietnamese Government should introduce appropriate policies to improve the efficiency of customs management in Vietnam; envisage accurate planning and reasonable investment for the customs office in terms of facilities and human resources; establish reasonable non-tariff barriers to prevent fraud and abuse causing losses in customs revenues.