Ukraine bond market: yield curve analysis

Abstract

The state of the bond market can be described using yield to maturity (YTM) curve which is a graphical representation of the dependence between the YTM of bonds of equal credit quality and their duration. It is proposed to change the original system of YTM indicators to the system of principal components which are linear orthogonal combinations of initial indicators. The obtained principal components can be predicted. In turn, each point of the yield curve can be restored from the predicted values of the principal components.