Study of priority directions of economic recovery of Ukraine based on scenario modelling

Abstract

Determining the strategy of Ukraine’s economic recovery in the post-war period is relevant, as it affects its sustainable development, attracting international aid and ensuring long-term economic growth. The purpose of the article was to identify the key factors that could determine the intensity of economic recovery, as well as the construction and evaluation of possible scenarios for the development of Ukraine after the end of the “hot” phase of the war. Nonparametric regression tools (spline functions) were used to study the peculiarities of the development of the economy of Ukraine. It was established that the development of the economy of Ukraine took place with a slowdown. The expediency of using scenario modelling in conditions of high uncertainty of Ukraine’s development prospects was substantiated. Based on the SWOT analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of Ukraine’s economy were determined as prerequisites for its renewal in the post-war period, and the key factors were highlighted, namely the level of international support for Ukraine (possibility of its reproduction); institutional environment (efficiency of economic reproduction). Four scenarios for the recovery of Ukraine’s economy in the post-war period were constructed. The probability of their implementation was estimated. It was determined that the “Slow development” scenario is the most likely, which involved the formation of a “stimulating” institutional environment with a decrease in international support. Such an institutional environment should contribute to the reindustrialisation of the economy, increasing its competitiveness, eliminating current structural imbalances, developing institutions for financing scientific research, investment, and innovation activities, as well as increasing domestic demand. The development of industry should be based on the need to transition to the sixth technological system, which involved significant investments in the intellectual capital in the development and implementation of innovative technologies. The results of the conducted research could be used by state authorities when developing priority directions for the economic recovery in Ukraine.