Inbound and outbound tourist flows: assessment of the impact of internal and external factors

Abstract

The paper is devoted to identifying and assessing the factors that have the most significant impact on the outbound and inbound tourist flows of countries. Hypotheses are put forward and tested about the sensitivity of outbound flows to changes in certain macroeconomic factors of countries, as well as the significant impact of events occurring at the state or regional level on the inbound flows. Regression-correlation analysis of time series allowed to obtain quantitative estimates of the degree of macroeconomic factors influence to the outbound flows of the number of countries and to identify the most influencing factors. The dynamics of inbound flows was analyzed in terms of jumps in the increase or decrease of the flow as a reaction to certain activities of a negative or positive nature. Relevant for modern tourism collapse due to COVID-19 pandemy impact trends in the rate of recovery of tourist flow are estimated.