Macroeconomic determinants of ensuring financial stability of the banking system of Ukraine

Abstract

The system paradigm, which is the basis of the concept of ensuring the financial stability of the banking system, involves the definition of external relations and macroeconomic factors. This necessitates an appropriate assessment of the volatility of the financial stability index from determinants. Using multidimensional factor analysis and selection of indicators with the highest values of factor loads, it is established that the first factor has the highest correlation with the exchange rate, minimum wage, deposit interest rate in foreign currency, loan interest rate in foreign currency, gold reserves; the second factor is formed by indicators of real GDP and consumer price index; the third factor is closely related to the deposit interest rate in hryvnia. Determining macroeconomic factors to ensure the financial stability of the banking system are: deposit interest rate in foreign currency, exchange rate, consumer price index and the size of gold and foreign exchange reserves. The assessment of the level of sensitivity of the financial stability of the banking system to changes in determining macroeconomic factors should be based on the coefficients of elasticity obtained taking into account the results of regression analysis. An increase in the parameters that characterize macroeconomic factors by 1% of the average level, both positively and negatively affects the value of the index of financial stability of the banking system. Determining the sensitivity of the financial stability index of the banking system to changes in determinants through the calculation of elasticity factors allowed us to state that among macroeconomic factors, changes in the level of stability of the banking system of Ukraine are most determined by consumer prices and exchange rates.