Evaluation of the recreational and tourist potential of municipalities using the fuzzy set method

Abstract

The study is relevant due to the need to improve the evaluation of the recreational and tourist attractiveness of municipalities within Ukraine’s new administrative-territorial system, particularly in the communities of Zakarpattia region. The objective was to determine the level of their tourism attractiveness using fuzzy set theory to quantitatively reflect the uncertainty of multifactorial decisions. Fuzzy modeling with trapezoidal membership functions and statistical methods were used to analyse the relationship between resources and revenue from the tourism fee. The results confirmed significant heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of recreational and tourism resources: the coefficient of variation for the composite index was 105%, indicating sharp differences between communities. The group with the highest attractiveness included the Berehove, Yasinya, Uzhhorod, Koson, Mukacheve, and Irshava communities; the Mizhhirya, Pylypets, Khust, and Rakhiv communities also had significant potential. More than half of Zakarpatia’s communities were among the least attractive; four of them did not have any cultural heritage sites or nature reserves. A gap had been identified between resource potential and financial results: seven communities generated 68% of the tourism fee, while the least attractive ones accounted for 22% of the potential and generated 24% of the fee, indicated the possibility of a synergistic effect through logistics, marketing, infrastructure, and human resources. In contrast, communities with 23% of the potential accounted for less than 1% of revenue, indicated “reverse synergy.” Statistical analysis showed that only 1.5% of the variation in revenue was explained by the type of resources. The key factor was not the type of resource, but the ability of communities to made integrated use of their collective resource potential in cooperation with neighboring communities. The practical value of the study lied in proposition of a fuzzy model as an analytical tool for strategic planning, branding, and enhancing the competitiveness of municipalities.