Wartime migration and its effects on Ukraine’s human capital

Abstract

In the context of the full-scale war in Ukraine, forced migration has acquired a systemic and large-scale character, becoming one of the key factors of economic transformation. It significantly reshapes the socio-economic landscape, affecting the labor market structure, reducing the working-age population, and increasing the role of remittances as a source of support for domestic demand. At the same time, migration processes generate both negative and positive economic effects, including the redistribution of labor resources and the formation of new financial flows. Migration is a complex socio-economic phenomenon that includes various forms of population movement ‒ internal and external ‒ and is determined by a combination of economic, social, and security factors. Economically, migration is aimed at increasing income and expanding employment opportunities, while socially it is associated with improving quality of life and access to essential services. In wartime conditions, these motives are complemented by security concerns, which intensify migration processes. At the same time, forced migration leads to structural changes in the demographic composition of the population, including a decline in the share of economically active individuals and growing regional disparities. These processes intensify labor market imbalances, create shortages of qualified personnel, and pose additional challenges for state socio-economic policy. The integration of Ukrainians into EU countries and Canada creates both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, migrants acquire new skills and experience; on the other, prolonged stay abroad increases the risk of permanent emigration. The potential return of part of the population may partially compensate for demographic losses, but it depends on economic recovery and effective reintegration policies. Age asymmetry in migration flows further amplifies labor market imbalances and requires targeted policy responses. Positive effects include the stabilization of the domestic market, increased household income through remittances and international aid, and integration into external labor markets. However, negative consequences include the loss of skilled labor, structural labor market imbalances, increased pressure on social systems, and risks to long-term economic recovery. The dual effect of forced migration highlights the need for a comprehensive state policy aimed at supporting displaced persons, stimulating return migration, optimizing financial flows, and ensuring the effective use of international assistance.