Logistics risk assessment and the development of a risk-oriented controlling approach under uncertainty

Abstract

The object ofresearch isthe process ofmanagement and functioning oflogistics systems ofthe European Union countries and Ukraine under conditions ofuncertainty and crisis phenomena. The problem addressed isthe lack ofa methodologically formalized link between the type oflogistics risk environment and the choice ofa controlling model capable ofensuring efficiency and resilience oflogistics processes. The results are based oninternationally comparable indicators, including the logistics performance index, time toexport procedures, the transport services cost index, and the political stability and absence ofviolence index. After data standardization, k-means cluster analysis identified three types oflogistics risk environments inthe European Union with different levels ofrisk exposure. This confirms the heterogeneity oflogistics risk profiles across EU countries and limits the applicability ofunified controlling models focused exclusively onefficiency. Acomparative assessment ofUkraine relative toaverage cluster values revealed anextreme logistics risk environment. Itis characterized bya 22–31% lower Logistics Performance Index, a2.7–4.3 times longer time required for export procedures, a24–35%higher transport services cost index, and asignificant deterioration ininstitutional parameters compared with the average values ofall EU clusters. Amechanism for selecting arisk-oriented logistics controlling model depending onthe operating conditions ofthe system has been developed, which enhances the validity ofmanagerial decisions and the resilience oflogistics processes. Adistinctive feature ofthe results isthe proposed mechanism for selecting arisk-oriented controlling model depending onthe type oflogistics environment.