Methods and Principles of Forecasting Passenger Air Transportation in Tourism

Abstract

The study examines modern approaches to forecasting the development of the passenger air transportation market in tourism as an important tool for strategic planning and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. The classification of forecasting methods into econometric, expert-based, and combined approaches is substantiated, taking into account the availability and quality of information, the complexity of influencing factors, and the specific characteristics of tourist passenger flows. Particular attention is paid to the principles of forecasting, including continuity, systemacity, scientific validity, adequacy, alternativeness, dynamism, variability, and iterativity. The application of the rolling base method is considered as a tool for continuous adjustment of forecasts. The need to adapt forecasting methods to the specific features of tourist air transportation, including pronounced seasonality, macroeconomic dependence, changes in consumer behavior, and external risks, is emphasized.